Business gas market outlook: July 2026
Last updated: July 2026
Wholesale gas traded at 149.25p a therm on 24 July 2026, with winter 2026 contracts at 149.93p (Catalyst Commercial). Summer 2027 is priced at 99.79p, about a third below today. Our verdict: expensive through this winter, priced to fall from spring 2027, and nothing in this month's data changes that.
This is our monthly read on wholesale gas for people with a renewal date rather than a trading desk. Electricity tends to move with it, because gas-fired plants usually set the wholesale power price; if you buy both fuels, see our business gas and electricity page. Every edition makes a dated call, and the next one scores it. All figures are correct as of July 2026 and sourced below.
The last 12 months in one chart
CHART: 12-month UK wholesale gas price (day-ahead, p/therm). Build from Ofgem's wholesale market indicators data portal at publish time; source attributed on the chart.
The day-ahead price was 149.25p a therm on 24 July 2026 and the next month's contract 149.45p (Catalyst Commercial). The market expects nothing dramatic before autumn. Wholesale is the biggest slice of a bill but not all of it; for per-kWh rates, and the network charges and levies that move separately, see our business gas prices page.
What's moving prices this month
Storage is behind schedule. Europe refills its gas storage all summer to survive winter. On 21 July 2026 EU storage stood at 54.4% full, around 11 percentage points behind the same point last year (Catalyst Commercial, from GIE AGSI data). Every unit still to buy before December supports the price, which is the main reason winter contracts refuse to get cheaper.
Ships are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. No LNG carrier has passed through the strait since 12 July 2026 (Catalyst Commercial, 24 July). Traders price that risk into every winter contract, and you pay for their nerves. Supply itself is holding up, with UK LNG sendout near 8.4 million cubic metres a day and Norwegian flows around 320 million. The premium covers what could go wrong rather than anything that already has.
The forward curve still points down. The market sells gas for summer 2027 at 99.79p a therm against 149.25p today (Catalyst Commercial, 24 July 2026). That is the market's own money saying prices fall by roughly a third within a year. It is a price, not a promise, but it is the only forecast anyone backs with cash.
What this means for your renewal
If your contract ends this winter, waiting for cheaper gas means buying in the most expensive quarter on the curve: Q4 2026 is priced at 153.56p a therm, above every other period out to 2027 (Catalyst Commercial, 24 July 2026). Locking a known rate now beats hoping. Remember there is no price cap for businesses, and out-of-contract rates sit well above a negotiated fix, so letting a contract lapse is the most expensive move of all.
If your contract ends in spring or summer 2027, the curve is on your side, and a shorter fix now can carry you into that cheaper period. Sometimes doing nothing until your window opens is the right call, and we'll say so.
Three Ofgem rules shape the timing. Most suppliers won't let you switch before your contract end date, so your contract end date sets the timing rather than switching speed. If Ofgem classes you as a micro-business, your termination notice can't exceed 30 days, and your renewal letter must show your current prices, the new prices and your annual usage side by side. And business contracts have no cooling-off period, even on the phone, so get any quote in writing before you agree. For the full decision, read should I fix my business gas price, and for decoding the letter itself, see our renewal page.
Last month's call, revisited
This is the first edition, so there's no previous call to score. Nobody else in this market grades their own predictions. We will. For the record, this month's call: winter 2026 delivery stays near 150p a therm unless storage catches up fast, and summer 2027 stays materially below this winter. Score us in the next edition.
Questions people ask us
- Are business energy prices going up?
Not right now. Wholesale gas is broadly flat: 149.25p a therm on 24 July 2026 against 149.45p for next month's delivery (Catalyst Commercial). Winter contracts are the expensive part of the curve, with Q4 2026 at 153.56p.
- When will business energy prices fall?
The market currently prices summer 2027 delivery at 99.79p a therm, about a third below the 149.25p day-ahead price as of 24 July 2026 (Catalyst Commercial). That's traders' money on the line, though no guarantee. And cheaper means cheaper than this winter: no part of the curve prices a return to pre-2021 levels.
- Why are business energy prices so high?
Two reasons this month: EU storage was 54.4% full on 21 July 2026, around 11 points behind last year, so refill demand is propping up prices; and tanker traffic avoiding the Strait of Hormuz keeps a risk charge in every winter contract (Catalyst Commercial, 24 July 2026). Behind both sits the longer story: Europe swapped Russian pipeline gas for shipped LNG after 2022, and the UK stores very little gas of its own, so it pays the market price of the day.
- Will household bills fall too?
Not much. Cornwall Insight forecast the October 2026 domestic price cap at £1,849 a year against £1,862 for July to September, with only a slight drop expected from January 2027 (30 June 2026). That's household context rather than a business gas forecast, but the direction matches.
Sources: Catalyst Commercial UK energy market report, 24 July 2026 (wholesale prices, storage via GIE AGSI, LNG and Norwegian flows); Cornwall Insight press release, 30 June 2026 (domestic cap forecast); Ofgem micro-business factsheet and business energy contract guidance, checked July 2026 (notice periods, renewal letters, cooling-off, switching before contract end). All wholesale figures correct as of July 2026; refreshed monthly.