Should you fix your business energy prices?
Last updated: July 2026
It depends on your contract end date. As of July 2026, wholesale gas for winter 2026 trades at 149.93p per therm and summer 2027 at 99.79p (Catalyst Commercial, settled 23 July 2026). Fixing now buys certainty at winter's price. Waiting bets that next summer's cheaper pricing actually arrives.
Nobody can answer that without knowing your end date and your appetite for risk. This page shows what the market prices today, the trade-offs in one table, and the logic we apply every month. Our answer changes. The logic doesn't.
The verdict, as of July 2026
Wholesale gas for next-day delivery settled at 149.25p per therm on 23 July 2026. The forward market prices August 2026 at 149.45p, the fourth quarter at 153.56p, and winter 2026 at 149.93p. Then it drops: summer 2027 trades at 99.79p. Source: Catalyst Commercial, UK Energy Market Report, 24 July 2026.
That shape is called backwardation. Gas for later delivery costs less than gas for now. Winter 2026 at 149.93p against summer 2027 at 99.79p is a gap of 50.14p per therm, which makes next summer about a third cheaper than this winter in today's forward prices.
Read it both ways. Fixing now locks in a rate built on winter at roughly 150p. Waiting means riding whatever this winter does, in the hope of fixing near next summer's pricing later. The forward curve is a price you can lock. Nothing obliges it to come true.
CHART — 12-month wholesale gas price series. Shared asset with /guides/business-gas-market-outlook. Single Ofgem series, attributed and dated on refresh.
Fixed vs variable, honestly
This table covers how the two behave. For current per-kWh rates, see our business gas prices page.
| Fixed | Variable | |
|---|---|---|
| Your unit rate | Locked for the term | Moves with the market |
| If wholesale falls | You keep paying the agreed rate | Your rate can fall |
| If wholesale rises | You're protected until the end date | Your rate can rise, with notice |
| Price cap | None. The cap covers domestic tariffs only | None either |
| Cooling-off period | None, including phone agreements (Ofgem) | None |
| Leaving early | Most suppliers won't let you switch before the end date (Ofgem), and where an early exit is allowed, expect a fee | Shorter notice. Micro businesses give 30 days at most |
| If you do nothing at the end | The supplier rolls you over automatically. Micro-business rollovers are capped at 12 months (Ofgem) | You stay on it, at whatever it becomes |
The row that surprises people is the cooling-off one. Agree a fixed business contract on the phone and you're in. Get every quote in writing before you say yes.
One more thing the table can't show. Wholesale is the biggest moving part of a quoted rate, not the whole of it. Network charges and policy costs sit inside the unit rate too, and they move on their own schedule whichever contract you choose.
The case for fixing now
Certainty has a value you can put in the budget. A fixed rate turns an unknown winter into a known number, and that number is defensible when your accountant asks.
The near curve is not asking a large premium for it. The fourth quarter of 2026 is priced at 153.56p per therm against a day-ahead settlement of 149.25p, so locking winter costs little more than today's spot price implies.
And calm can end quickly. The prompt is being held down by warm weather capping north-west European demand and by Norwegian flows of around 320 million cubic metres a day. A cold snap or an outage changes that, and Catalyst notes thin forward trading, so prices can move sharply when it does. If you want a long horizon, contracts can be fixed for up to five years (Ofgem).
The case for waiting
The market already prices next summer a third below this winter: 99.79p per therm for summer 2027 against 149.93p for winter 2026. If your renewal date falls in spring, a short fix or a variable spell now, then fixing later, keeps you free to take that lower curve if it holds. Fixing a long contract at what turns out to be the top stings for the whole term.
There's also the boring answer: mid-contract with months left, do nothing. Most suppliers won't let you switch before your end date anyway. Staying put is sometimes the right call, and we'll say so when it is.
Our answer changes. The standing logic doesn't
Contract end date first, market second: if your end date is inside the next three months, arrange something, fixed or otherwise, whatever the market is doing. Doing nothing means rollover or out-of-contract rates, which typically sit well above contracted ones. Our deemed rates guide(/guides/deemed-rates) has the comparison, and whether the renewal letter has landed or you want to book a rate before it does, our business gas renewal(/business-gas-renewal) page decodes the letter and covers the timing.
The curve is a price, not a prophecy: if a fixable rate makes your budget work, locking it is not a mistake even if prices later fall. You bought certainty and got it.
Match the contract to your cash flow: if one bad winter bill would strain the account, certainty is worth more to you than the chance of a cheaper spring. A buffer that could absorb a spike is what buys you the option to wait.
Never fix on the phone under pressure: no cooling-off period means the quote in writing is the only version that counts.
Check back monthly: this page and our market outlook refresh together, verdict dated, sources named.
Questions people ask us
- Should I fix until 2027?
You can. Business energy contracts can be fixed for up to five years (Ofgem), so a term running through 2027 is available. As of July 2026 a fix spanning winter 2026 at 149.93p per therm and summer 2027 at 99.79p blends both, so the length you choose changes the rate you're offered.
- What happens when my fix ends?
If you do nothing before the end date, your supplier rolls you over automatically, and micro-business rollover contracts are capped at 12 months (Ofgem). Drift with no contract at all and you're on deemed rates, which typically sit well above contracted ones. Our deemed rates guide(/guides/deemed-rates) covers what they cost and how to leave.
- Are variable business tariffs capped?
No. The energy price cap applies to domestic customers on default tariffs, not to business contracts. A variable business rate can rise as far as your supplier's schedule takes it.
Sources: Catalyst Commercial, UK Energy Market Report, 24 July 2026 (wholesale prices settled 23 July 2026); Ofgem, Set up a business energy contract (checked July 2026); Ofgem micro-business factsheet (2015, currency to be re-verified at publish). Full methodology: how we source our numbers.